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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.